In the next 5 years, most of the newspapers will probably merge or go out of business. Who will do the real reporting? Who will actually take pride in grinding out the news in the trenches? One thing is for sure, the time is running out for them to figure it out.

A corollary idea is that anyone can be a journalist, as long as they have distribution. But if that were true, newspapers would be a lot cheaper to produce and would have no need to cut editorial staff. Good journalists demand good pay because they know their talents are rare. It’s a simple fact of business life, not a conspiracy of “elites.”

We’re now seeing a long, thorough shakeout in the print news business. At some point, survivors will distinguish themselves and at that point, just as with all businesses that have real shakeouts, prices will rise significantly. Instead of getting stuff free on the Web, you’ll be paying for it. If you’re happy with low-quality journalism, you may not have to pay much, perhaps the fees will be low and the ads thick. The good stuff is going to cost you, though.

A lot of people pay north of $50 a month for cable TV, and I have to think there’s enough people who, given a choice, would rather have a well-edited and written daily newspaper than 200 channels of TV, so would be willing to pay $50 a month.
But those kinds of rates can only be charged once the dominant players like the NY Times etc. can no longer afford to give away their news for free. That may take a decade, but it is how this thing is going to shake out.