BuzzMachine
by Jeff Jarvis

October 06, 2004

Web 2.0: The killer map

: Keyhole systems shows its wowy map with 3-d imaging and many data feeds. He turns on traffic data. I want it. I want it with flash-mob user-generated content, too and Keyhole says they are building that in via local blogs.trialbike free download


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Web 2.0: Music

: Hank Barry of Hummer Winblad starts off with a call to action aginst the Induce Act. He said that the consumer electornics, IEEE, and net guys after a long meeting all sent letters to the Senate saying they will not go along with Induce. Notwithstanding, he says, the sponsors vow to go ahead. "That bill can be opposed. I advise you all to talk to your senators." There's a list of senators involved at www.netcoalition.com. "End of commercial. Induce act is not cool." Mike Weiss of Morpheus says all employees of these companies here should call their senators. (Ernie Miller has more links here.)trialbike free download

Michael Caren, head of A&R at Atlantic, says he looks under every rock to find talent, including reading blogs, checking out local sales, going to small clubs. He says 90 percent of his music is now recorded directly into the computer; that allows them to lower costs and increase cooperation.trialbike free download

Danger Mouse tells the story of the Gray Album. He says he did it all on Acid (the program) and ended up buying a legal copy. Michael Weiss says says Bezos is right: Sampling drives sales. trialbike free download

Weiss, of Morpheus, announces Neonet, next generation peer-to-peer search technology. "The copyright cartel is gonna hate this," he says. trialbike free download

Cory Doctorow says the question is being framed in how to help the record labels. He says he wants to solve the problem that Danger Mouse's CD is illegal and 70 million Americans are breaking the law. trialbike free download

Danger Mouse says it's unfortunate that artists have "sold ourselves to the man, the devil, whatever you want to call it... it's caught up." He says the days of "making a song gets you rich and worshipped" will not last long. But he also acknowledges that it is a business that supports a lot of people and you can't pull the rug out from them.trialbike free download

Web 2.0: Lessons learned

: John Battelle is interviewing Marc Andreesen and Yahoo honcho Dan Rosenzweig. trialbike free download

He asks Andreesen whether the browser has a future. He says he was amazed that Microsoft got the advantage in browsers and then did not use it. trialbike free download

Battelle says, "a lot of the things you developed -- RSS -- are huge." Andreesen nods. How many people get credit for developing RSS?trialbike free download

Andreesen says that with Firefox, Opera et al innovating in browsers, Microsoft will finally start competing. trialbike free download

Rosenzweig says, "I hope Marc doesn't keep waking them up."trialbike free download

He adds: "The more we try to cage people up in how they do things the less likely they are to do it."trialbike free download

Battelle asks whether you need client software on the user's computer. Andreesen shakes his head no. Rosenzweig says there are clients like music that matter and he's looking at more clients, for such things as photos. trialbike free download

Andreesen says that if the walled garden of the past was portals, the walled garden of the future is data. Many have eBay envy, for eBay owns your data and there's no way to export your reputation to use elsewhere. trialbike free download

"I think it is the application of data and not using data as a weapon against your users," Rosenzweig says.trialbike free download

Andreesen says there is no personalized or job service, for example, that lets you get your profile out. You can't get your email out of Yahoo. trialbike free download

Rosenzweig: "As unopen as you claim it to be, nobody's required to do anything." Cop-out.trialbike free download

Moments before, he said this: "The more we try to cage people up in how they do things the less likely they are to do it."trialbike free download

Esther Dyson just leaned over and said we need Marc Canter in this discussion. Thirty seconds later, Canter stands at the microphone.trialbike free download

Andreesen says the reason people are trying to lock-in data is because there is no brand loyalty and if a new and better product comes out, people will switch.trialbike free download

Jarvis' First Law: Give the people control of media, they will use it. trialbike free download

The corollary: Don't give the people control of media, and you will lose. trialbike free download

: Battelle asks them about the rejuvenated web-as-OS meme. Andreesen says Google is being led by the nose, willingly or unwillingly, into a confrontation with Microsoft. Who's leading? Press, analysts, users, everything -- "I've seen it before.... Everybody loves the fight." He says that a desktop OS and a search engine don't need to be competitive. He thinks "Google is going to do some things that are very surprising." A browser would be obvious. Battelle reminds him that John Doerr said last night that Google is not going to do a browser. Andreesen answers: "The day they start listening to John Doerr is the day they don't do a Dutch action." trialbike free download

Rosenzweig: "All this tech talk is fun and it's great for blogs and the 12 people whose lives it will change." Bloggers belch. Somebody asks why they added blogs to MyYahoo if they're ready by only 12 people. He says he didn't say that.trialbike free download

: Battelle asks, "You both just got fired. Where are you building your next company?" Andreesen says, "I think Dan would start a blog." Dan says, "Actually, I would. I think blogs and personal publishing are great."trialbike free download

Andreesen says there are a few levels: the number of users, the amount of usage, the number of mobile users are all growing hugely. The cost components have all declined dramatically: hardware, bandwidth, even people. On the business side, he says "in the last five years, we've cracked the code on advertising." He says the capital requirement to start a new internet business is coming in under $500k in many cases and the question is whether they will even need to raise venture capital. He never does says what he would do.trialbike free download

Steve Gillmor pushes his RSS synchronization theme. He says there is a roach motel strategy: the meta data goes in and it never comes out. "Are you willing to commit to an open standard around attention meta data." Rosenzweig says he's not ready to commit to anything today. "It's going to take more time than many people want it to take but at the end of the day we're all going to end up surrending to what the user wants to do." trialbike free download

And Marc Canter brings up, of course, FOAF. He says standards setters need some help from "the billionaire boys' club." Andreesen says it's not money; "the answer is obviously open standards."trialbike free download

Chris Tolles asks whether Overture will go into RSS advertising. He says the guys at Overture say the guys at Yahoo stop them. "You should give me the name of that person at Overture," Rosenzweig says. "You want to understand whether Yahoo, which is in the ad business, wants to roll out an ad business that will make more money.... The answer is yes."trialbike free download

Web 2.0: Dave Sifry Technorati infoporm

: Dave Sifry gives us our fix of infoporn. Dave gives goooood PowerPoint.trialbike free download

They're now tracking 4.1 million bloggers. The median time from post to Technorati listing is 7 minutes. As Esther Dyson said yesterday, this adds the vital factor of time to Internet connections. Google becomes dynamic and connected. trialbike free download

Dave says the web is the "exhaust of a person's attention stream." I thought it but the guy next to me said it: "Isn't that a fart?"trialbike free download

He shows a chart of the blogosphere doubling and doubling again and again. The slowest that it has doubled is very five months. trialbike free download

New blogs are being created at a rate of 12,000 a day.trialbike free download

Big news: English is no longer more than half of the blogosphere.trialbike free download

Abandonment rates are at 45 percent.trialbike free download

He shows a chart of spikes of the volume of posting. Big spikes for the convention; big spike for the beheading of Nick Berg. A spike not as big is the Dean Scream. Another big story is the Kryptonite lock story. trialbike free download

He shoes the chart he has shown before comparing the influence of big media vs. bloggers. Bloggers are rising up the list. Can't read the specifics on the screen. trialbike free download

Corporate bloggers are proliferating: Micrososft, media sites, Sun, SAP, Macromedia, blogging companies, Oracle are the biggies. There are only about 5,000 today.trialbike free download

He finds the RSS adoption rate in blogging is low: about 31 percent. Only about 28 percent of those RSS feeds are full-text. But... He finds that the greater influence you have (that is, the more links to you), the greater the chance that you will have an RSS feed. Attention breeds attention.trialbike free download

He said Socialtext integrated Technorati into its wikis.
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Web 2.0: Mobile

: Rael Dornfest of O'Reilly is running a panel on the future of mobile. I'm hoping to hear podcasting.trialbike free download

Trip Hawkins says the phone is turning into a "social computer." It's about connecting. He says it's not about the technology -- "all you technology people, get over it" -- it's about the ubiquity. trialbike free download

They're batting back and forth about what phones and phone software will look like. It's a bit too vague and speculative for my taste. trialbike free download

I didn't hear about podcasting, so I asked about it. I do believe that these devices will become a primary means of delivering entertainment and content via first storage and then ubiquitous broadband. See this post on podcasting. trialbike free download

Web 2.0: Brewster Kahle

: Brewster Kahle arguing that "universal access to all knowledge is possible." Well, drat, I have to run out for a few minutes and I'll miss universal knowledge. I'll pick it up on another blog. trialbike free download

He says there are 26 million books in the Library of Congress, the largest in the world; more than half are out of copyright. That's 26 terabytes of data that would cost $60k to store. He said it costs about $10 to scan a book. He's working with a company in Toronto to get robotic help. So the cost is $260 million to scan the LOC. trialbike free download

He says that Google announced this morning that they're going to digitize books.trialbike free download

I'll link to somebody else who has the rest. Later.
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Web 2.0: Joe Kraus

: Joe Kraus, founder of Excite (and Architext) and Digital Consumer has allegedly been up for 48 hours getting ready for this presentation. He's revealing his previously secret Jotspot, "the application wiki."trialbike free download

He says wiki's are about small pieces loosely -- but better -- joined. Just like fellow wiki pioneer, Ross Mayfield of Socialtext, he sees this as a lightweight application to compete with heavy-duty and expensive enterprise applications. trialbike free download

I was hoping I'd see the first pretty wiki. No such luck. Why do wikis have to be ugly?trialbike free download

Kraus is giving a demo: text goes here; Word and Excel docs are displayed as HTML and have version control. trialbike free download

Every page in the wiki is an email address. Thus you can post from email. (As I remember, I saw this on SocialText as well yesterday.)trialbike free download

Where he says Jotspot is different is that you can add structure (e.g., dates, ratings, and so on). It's a lightweight form language. trialbike free download

Seven apart

: Om reports that SixApart, making of Movable Type, got more funding. trialbike free download

Extra! Extra! Stern into orbit

: It's killing me that I'm on the West Coast and behind on the news that Stern isn't going to announce for yet another hour out here: He's moving to Sirius Satellite (which, by the way, was the stock I bought when all the FCC crap began... it's up 18 percent right now). trialbike free download

He's moving January 1, 2006, after his Viacom contract is up. But I'll bet this could happen sooner. When Bush signs the indecent indecency bill, Stern will shut up and play records and he'll be damned expensive. There's really no reason then for Viacom to hold Stern to his contract and keep him on the air; once the curiousity of a silent Stern wears off, it will hurt the stations. He'll want to go. They'll let him go. Hell, he could not have negotiated this deal without Viacom's OK. And then he can move to satellite sooner.trialbike free download

I'm buying my Sirius receiver ASAP. HowardStern.com already has an ad for Sirius.trialbike free download

The economics are what I said earlier:

SIRIUS estimates that Stern only would need to generate approximately 1 million subscribers in order to cover the costs of the deal. Total production and operating costs for the Stern show, including compensation of the show cast and staff, overhead, construction costs for a dedicated studio, and a budget for the development of additional programming and marketing concepts, is estimated to be approximately $100 million per year.
There, ladies and gentlemen, is the last nail in the coffin of broadcast as the central medium in America. And the FCC hammered it in. trialbike free download

The age of one-size-fits-all media is over but the FCC and Congress don't want to admit it and so they are not allowing TV and radio to compete with the tremendous choice and freedom now available on cable, satellite, and the internet -- and soon via ubiquitous broadband and podcasting and all that. I'll say it again: Just tear down the antennas; we don't need them anymore. trialbike free download

: Fred Wilson says we'll look back at today as a day when radio was reinvented, thanks to Stern and advances in digital radio. trialbike free download

He disagrees with my nail-in-coffin argument above. I replied in the comments there. trialbike free download

Just to be clear: I'm not saying that broadcast will die (though I will keep suggesting that we really could tear down the towers once we have ubiquitous broadband). I am saying that broadcast will not matter as much in the media world. Fred thinks/hopes that better satellite programming will competitively push radio to produce better programming. I wish. But I don't think so for a few reasons:trialbike free download

First, the mass is out; the mass of niches is in. That's what media is about now, in this world of ultimate choice. The audience is adjusting to it and advertisers will next and they will see that though it's difficult to put together a mass of niches, it's more efficient and effective. So ad dollars will leave broadcast for not only cable and now satellite but also the Internet.trialbike free download

Second, look at his post on podcasting. trialbike free download

Third, the pabluming of broadcast by the FCC.trialbike free download

Fred adds in an email exchange:

The cool thing about HD radio is it allows a radio broacaster to run up to 7 audio streams simulatneously on a single channel. Where there was 1, now there can be 7. that's just one more reason why niche will win. Technology is driving it to happen.
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The Missus

: Of course, the debate we're missing is the First Ladies Debate. We all know who would win that one. trialbike free download

Mrs. Hyphenate Kerry is really bugging my wife. When we talk about our votes, she brings that up every time. I suspect that's true of more women than we know. Anybody have a link to recent polls on her impact on the race.trialbike free download

Andrew Sullivan has a few choice quotes from the Hillary wannabe. trialbike free download

Veep-off: The morning after

: It appears that I'm being somewhat contrarian, again, in my debate reaction. That could be an indication that variety of opinion is good for democracy. Or that could be an indication that I'm an idiot. Whatever.trialbike free download

In the almost-light of morning, I can see how people could see Edwards as too too slick, too smug, too glib, too lawyerl. trialbike free download

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